Deidre Pfeifer

Real Estate Agent, California

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 4, 2023

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Dec 4, 2023The first week of December’s largest reports are the GDP estimates, which will be the second estimations of the year prior to the final release. The final GDP reports will be after the new year and are the strongest indicator for the economic state of the country. With the Federal Reserve aiming for a soft landing for the economy, it is important for the GDP and inflation statistics to be in parity with each other. The last but also very important releases for the end of the year are the Personal Income and Spending data.


GDP Estimates (First Release)

The numbers: The U.S. economy grew at an assuring 5.2% annual pace in the third quarter, faster than previously reported, but the surprisingly strong gain appears to have been a one–off occurrence.

Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, was revised upwards Wednesday from an initially reported 4.9% rate of growth. It was the biggest increase in a decade, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending rose a mild 0.2% in October in potentially another sign of a long-predicted slowdown in the U.S. economy. While spending has slowed, many inflation rates, lending rates, and other factors have been showing signs of an improving economy.

Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecasted a 0.2% increase.

Consumer spending is the main engine of the U.S. economy and outlays grew a robust 3.6% in the third quarter.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

The last 4 weeks have seen a week-to-week decline in rates.

  • 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.11% with the current rate at 6.56%.
  • 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.07% with the current rate at 7.22%

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates decreased week-to-week, seeing a -0.15% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.50%
  • 30-Yr VA rates decreased week-to-week, seeing a -0.15% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.50%

Jobless Claims

U.S. jobless claims drop to five-week low of 209,000.

Initial Claims have increased to 218,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week was 210,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week will be an important release schedule with the final CPI and PPI reports, which saddled alongside the final GDP numbers, will be the largest indicators for the robustness of the current economy and for 2023 as a whole.

The LTV Ratio: How ‘Loan-to-Value’ Works and Why You Need to Understand This Ratio

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Are you in the market for a new home? If you plan on using mortgage financing to buy your next home you’ve likely heard the phrase “loan-to-value” or the acronym “LTV” before. Let’s take a quick look at the loan-to-value ratio including why it’s important, how to calculate it, and how it can affect your mortgage.

What is the Loan-to-Value or LTV Ratio?

In short, the LTV ratio is a number that compares how much money you owe against your home with its resale value in the marketplace. A low LTV ratio indicates that you have far more equity in your home than you owe in mortgage payments; conversely, a high LTV ratio indicates that you owe almost as much as your home is worth.

Calculating your LTV ratio is easy. Simply divide the amount that you have (or will have) remaining in your mortgage by your home’s value. For example, if you own a home worth $250,000 and you still owe $150,000 on your mortgage, the calculation would be $150,000 divided by $250,000, which gives you an LTV ratio of 0.6 or 60 percent.

Why is the LTV Ratio Important?

Your LTV ratio is important for a number of reasons. First, your mortgage lender will use this figure as part of their risk calculation when they assess your financial suitability for your mortgage. If you’re only putting 5 percent of the purchase price in as a down payment you’ll have an LTV ratio of 95 percent, which is a more risky loan than one with an LTV ratio of 30 percent and thus will almost certainly come with a higher interest rate.

If you have an LTV ratio higher than 80 percent and you’re getting a mortgage from a conventional lender you’ll also be required to pay for private mortgage insurance or “PMI”. Although PMI rates generally sound quite low – in the neighborhood of 0.5 to 1 percent – they can add hundreds of dollars to your monthly mortgage payment. Note that PMI may not apply to you if you’re seeking out a government-backed mortgage from Veteran’s Affairs, the USDA, or the FHA.

While the LTV ratio might seem simple, this number can affect your mortgage in a variety of ways. Contact your local mortgage advisor today to learn more about the LTV ratio and to have your questions answered by an experienced professional.

Speed Your Mortgage Approval up by Following This Checklist

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Have you finally found your dream home after months of searching, and then you are told that the seller has received other offers? No buyer wants to find themselves in a bidding war against another buyer as it is a stressful situation. Being unprepared and not having your finances in order will make it even more stressful. Here are a few quick ways if you’re looking to speed up your mortgage approval process, here’s a checklist to help you prepare:

·        Review your credit report: Maintain a good credit score by paying bills on time, reducing existing debt, and avoiding new credit inquiries. Check your credit report for errors and make sure your credit score is in good shape. A good credit score can positively impact the approval and interest rate you receive.

·        Gather financial documents: Gather all necessary paperwork beforehand, including pay stubs, tax returns, bank statements, and any other financial documentation. Having these readily available will expedite the application process.

·        Save for a down payment: A larger down payment can reduce the risk for lenders, making them more inclined to approve your loan faster. It can also decrease the time needed for certain approval processes.

·        Stay at your job: It’s best to avoid changing jobs during the mortgage approval process.

·        Avoid new credit: Don’t apply for new credit or take on new debt during the approval process.

·        Don’t make big purchases: Avoid making large purchases, such as a car, during the approval process.

·        Respond promptly to requests: Once you’ve applied for a mortgage, respond promptly to any requests from your lender. Delays often occur when there’s a lack of communication or slow responses to queries or requests for additional information.

·        Work with a reputable lender: Choose a lender with a good reputation and experience in the mortgage industry.

·        Get pre-approved: Consider getting pre-approved for a mortgage before house hunting to speed up the approval process.

Stay informed about the process and ask questions if you’re unsure about any step. Following this checklist can help speed up your mortgage approval process and make the process smoother and less stressful.  Good communication with your lender is key to ensuring a smooth and expedited process.

Three Reasons Why You Might Consider a Reverse Mortgage When Nearing Retirement

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As retirement approaches, many individuals find themselves faced with financial challenges and uncertainties. One option that is often overlooked but can be incredibly beneficial is the reverse mortgage. A reverse mortgage is a financial tool that allows homeowners aged 62 and older to convert a portion of their home equity into tax-free funds. Here are three compelling reasons why you might consider a reverse mortgage when nearing retirement:

Supplement Your Retirement Income:

One of the most common concerns for retirees is whether they will have enough income to maintain their desired lifestyle throughout their golden years. Social Security and retirement savings may not always be sufficient to cover all expenses, and this is where a reverse mortgage can come to the rescue.

With a reverse mortgage, you receive monthly payments, a lump sum, or a line of credit based on the equity in your home. The funds you receive are not considered taxable income, and they can be used to supplement your retirement income, pay off existing mortgage debt, or cover unexpected medical expenses.

Eliminate Monthly Mortgage Payments:

A significant advantage of a reverse mortgage is that it allows you to eliminate monthly mortgage payments. By converting your home equity into a reverse mortgage, you can live in your home without the burden of monthly payments. This can free up a substantial portion of your income for other expenses, improving your financial security and reducing your financial stress.

Maintain Ownership of Your Home:

Some people worry that a reverse mortgage will require them to give up ownership of their home. However, this is not the case. With a reverse mortgage, you retain ownership of your home as long as you continue to live in it and maintain it. The loan is repaid when you or your heirs sell the property or when you no longer live in the home.

It’s important to note that a reverse mortgage is not suitable for everyone, and there are eligibility requirements and responsibilities associated with it. Before considering a reverse mortgage, it’s advisable to consult with a financial advisor or mortgage specialist to understand the terms, implications, and potential risks involved.

A reverse mortgage can be a valuable tool for retirees facing financial challenges or seeking to enhance their retirement lifestyle. When nearing retirement, it’s essential to explore all your financial options to make informed decisions that best align with your specific needs and goals. A reverse mortgage may be the right choice for you to enjoy a more comfortable and financially secure retirement.

Comparing Temporary and Permanent Mortgage Buydowns

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When it comes to mortgages, a “buydown” generally refers to paying an extra fee upfront to reduce the interest rate over a specific period. There are typically two types: temporary buydowns and permanent buydowns.

Permanent Buydown:
With a permanent buydown, the borrower pays extra fees at the beginning of the loan to permanently reduce the interest rate over the entire life of the loan. This differs from a temporary buydown because the reduced rate remains constant for the entire loan term, potentially resulting in lower overall interest payments.

Temporary Buydowns

A temporary buydown is a type of mortgage financing in which the borrower pays an upfront fee to temporarily reduce the interest rate on the mortgage for a specific period of time. During this period, the borrower enjoys lower monthly mortgage payments, which can help make homeownership more affordable.

The temporary buydown typically lasts for the first few years of the mortgage, usually 1 to 3 years. The borrower pays a one-time fee at closing, which is used to fund the temporary reduction in the interest rate. The fee can either be paid in cash or financed into the loan amount.

During the buydown period, the borrower’s interest rate is lower than the fully indexed rate. For example, if the fully indexed rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 4%, a temporary buydown might reduce the interest rate to 2% in the first year, 3% in the second year, and 4% in the third year, after which it would revert to the fully indexed rate for the remainder of the loan term.

The lower interest rate during the buydown period results in lower monthly mortgage payments for the borrower, which can make homeownership more affordable in the early years of the loan. This can be particularly beneficial for borrowers who anticipate lower income during the early years of homeownership but expect to earn more in the future.

It’s important to note that while a temporary buydown can lower monthly payments during the buydown period, it does not reduce the total amount of interest paid over the life of the loan. In fact, the total interest paid over the life of the loan may be higher due to the upfront fee paid to fund the buydown.

Better to do a Temporary Buydown or buy the rate down forever?

Deciding whether to do a temporary buydown or buy the rate down permanently depends on your specific financial situation and goals.

If you plan to stay in the home for a long time and have the financial means to pay the upfront fee, buying the rate down permanently may be a better option. This will result in a lower interest rate and lower monthly payments for the entire term of the loan, which can save you money in the long run.

On the other hand, if you plan to sell the home or refinance the mortgage before the buydown period ends, a temporary buydown may be a better option. The lower payments during the buydown period can help make homeownership more affordable in the short term, without committing to a higher interest rate for the life of the loan.

In general, it’s important to carefully consider your financial goals and circumstances when deciding whether to do a temporary buydown or buy the rate down permanently. You may want to consult with a financial advisor or mortgage professional to help you make the best decision for your individual needs.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 27, 2023

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There will be a very light week with the Holiday season approaching. The only notable reports to have come out for the week are the U.S. economic leading indicators, with nothing scheduled around Thanksgiving weekend. The median forecast for the leading indicators has shown that with the rest of the CPI and PPI data among other economic statistics, the economy does seem to be heading towards a soft landing as the Federal Reserve had initially targeted. The most notable changes are lending partners cutting rates with the potential for shifting economic policies and rate cuts in the future.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators

The numbers: The leading economic index declined 0.8% in October and fell for the 19th month in a row, but the U.S. economy doesn’t appear any closer to a recession than when the losing streak began.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

The last 4 weeks have seen a week-to-week decline in rates.

  • 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.09% with the current rate at 6.67%.
  • 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.15% with the current rate at 7.29%.

MND Rate Index

  • 30-Yr FHA rates decreased week-to-week, and we’re seeing a -0.12% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.65%.
  • 30-Yr VA rates decreased week-to-week, and we’re seeing a -0.13% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.65%

Jobless Claims
U.S. jobless claims drop to a five-week low of 209,000.
Initial Claims have decreased to 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 229,000. The prior week was 218,000.

What’s Ahead
With Thanksgiving in the rearview, we are also looking at many Federal Reserve chairmen speaking next week along with Q3 GDP data release reports. There is also Personal Income Spending and PCE Index which will demonstrate the strength of the economy at a personal level. Lastly, ISM manufacturing is a small but still worthwhile report to indicate production capacity for many trade aspects.

The Role of A Down Payment: How Much Should I Save?

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Buying a home, a car, or any significant investment often involves making a down payment. The down payment is a crucial part of the purchasing process, as it can impact your loan terms, interest rates, and monthly payments. But how much should you save for a down payment, and why is it so important?

Understanding Down Payments

A down payment is a portion of the purchase price that you pay upfront when buying a house, a car, or making a large investment. It’s a way to demonstrate your commitment to the purchase and reduce the risk for the lender or seller. Down payments are commonly associated with:

Homebuying: When purchasing a home, a down payment is typically required by mortgage lenders. The amount can vary but is often around 20% of the home’s purchase price.

Car purchases: Down payments for cars can also range, but they often hover around 10-20% of the vehicle’s price.

Large investments: In other scenarios, such as starting a business or investing in a big-ticket item, a down payment may be necessary to secure financing.

Importance of Down Payments

Lowering Monthly Payments: A larger down payment reduces the amount you need to finance, resulting in lower monthly payments. This can make your financial burden more manageable in the long run.

Qualifying for Loans: A substantial down payment can help you qualify for loans with more favorable terms and lower interest rates. Lenders often see a larger down payment as a sign of financial stability.

Building Equity: With a significant down payment, you’ll start building equity in your asset from day one. Equity is the portion of the property or asset you own, and it can grow over time, giving you more financial security.

How Much Should You Save for a Down Payment?

The ideal down payment amount can vary based on what you’re buying and your financial situation. Here are some general guidelines:

Homes: As mentioned earlier, a down payment of 20% is often recommended for purchasing a home. However, there are mortgage options that allow for lower down payments, such as FHA loans, which require as little as 3.5% down. The key is to balance a lower down payment with the added cost of private mortgage insurance (PMI) and potentially higher interest rates.

Cars: For buying a car, a down payment of 10-20% is a good range to aim for. This will help reduce the overall cost of the car loan and lower your monthly payments.

Large Investments: The down payment for investments can vary widely, so it’s essential to assess your specific financial goals and risks. In this case, consult with a financial advisor to determine the right amount.

How to Save for a Down Payment

Saving for a down payment may seem daunting, but with a clear plan, it’s achievable. Here are some steps to help you get started:

Create a Budget: Review your finances, set a budget, and identify areas where you can cut back on spending to save more.

Open a Dedicated Savings Account: Consider opening a separate savings account exclusively for your down payment fund. This will help you track your progress and keep the money out of sight and out of mind.

Automate Savings: Set up automatic transfers from your checking account to your down payment savings account. This ensures that you save consistently.

Increase Income: Explore opportunities to increase your income, such as taking on a part-time job or freelancing, to boost your savings rate.

Reduce Debt: Pay down high-interest debts like credit cards to free up more money for saving.

The role of down payments in major purchases cannot be overstated. They play a vital role in reducing the financial burden of loans, helping you secure better loan terms, and building equity in your assets. While the ideal down payment amount can vary, it’s essential to set a clear savings goal and follow a strategic plan to achieve it. With discipline and patience, you can save for a down payment and take a significant step toward achieving your financial goals.

Which Big Tax Breaks Are Available From Home Credits

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There are several big tax breaks available from home credits that can help homeowners save money on their taxes. Here are some notable examples:

Mortgage Interest Deduction: This is one of the largest tax breaks for homeowners. You can deduct the interest paid on your mortgage loan, up to a certain limit, as an itemized deduction on your federal income tax return. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the mortgage interest deduction limit for new mortgages, but it still remains a significant tax break for many homeowners.

Property Tax Deduction: Homeowners can deduct the amount they pay in property taxes on their primary residence and any other real estate they own. The property tax deduction is an itemized deduction and can help reduce your taxable income.

Energy-Efficient Home Improvements: The Residential Energy-Efficient Property Credit allows homeowners to claim a tax credit for certain energy-efficient improvements made to their homes. This includes installing solar panels, solar-powered water heaters, wind turbines, geothermal heat pumps, and fuel cell systems. The credit is a percentage of the cost of the improvements and can provide substantial tax savings.

Home Office Deduction: If you use a part of your home regularly and exclusively for business purposes, you may be eligible for a home office deduction. This deduction allows you to deduct a portion of your home-related expenses, such as mortgage interest, property taxes, utilities, and home insurance, based on the percentage of your home used for business.

First-Time Homebuyer Credit: Although the federal first-time homebuyer credit was phased out in 2010, some states offer their own versions of this credit. These credits are designed to assist first-time homebuyers with their down payment or closing costs. Eligibility criteria and available amounts vary by state, so you should check with your state’s tax authority or a tax professional to see if you qualify.

It’s important to note that tax laws can change, and eligibility for these tax breaks may vary depending on your specific circumstances. It’s always a good idea to consult with a tax professional or refer to the latest tax guidelines to understand the most up-to-date information and determine your eligibility for these tax breaks.

Understanding Why You Don’t Need to Pay Off Your Mortgage Early

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In the world of personal finance and homeownership, there’s a common debate: should you pay off your mortgage early, or is it better to take a more relaxed approach to your home loan? While the idea of being mortgage-free is undoubtedly appealing, there are compelling reasons why you might not need to rush to pay off your mortgage ahead of schedule.

Tax Benefits: Mortgage interest payments are tax deductions that can help reduce your taxable income, potentially lowering your overall tax bill. Before you rush to pay off your mortgage, consult with a tax professional to determine how this deduction can work to your advantage.

Liquidity and Financial Flexibility: Tying up your funds in your home’s equity by paying off your mortgage early can lead to a lack of liquidity. Having money readily available for emergencies, opportunities, or other investments can provide financial security and flexibility. It’s important to strike a balance between building home equity and maintaining accessible funds.

Opportunity Cost: Every dollar you use to pay down your mortgage early is a dollar you can’t use for other purposes. This is what economists call the “opportunity cost.” While paying off your mortgage early may bring peace of mind, consider the potential opportunities you might be passing up, such as starting a new business, furthering your education, or investing in other assets.

Investment Diversification: By focusing solely on paying off your mortgage, you may miss out on diversifying your investments. A well-balanced investment portfolio can help you weather financial market fluctuations and build wealth more effectively over time.

Inflation Hedge: Over the years, inflation erodes the real value of your mortgage debt. As the cost of living increases, the amount you owe remains fixed. This means that your mortgage becomes less burdensome in real terms as time goes on, making early payment less attractive from a financial perspective.

Retirement Savings: Prioritizing retirement savings is often a wiser financial move than paying off your mortgage early. Saving for retirement allows your money to grow over the long term, and many retirement accounts offer tax advantages.

Your mortgage is just one piece of your overall financial puzzle, and there are often more advantageous ways to allocate your funds, considering low interest rates, tax benefits, and the potential for higher investment returns. Weigh the benefits of being mortgage-free against the advantages of investing and maintaining financial flexibility.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 20, 2023

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With the release of the CPI and PPI data, much of the broader market has been anticipating the potential cooling of inflation numbers month-to-month and those expectations have been met. There’s a consistent trend of inflation slowing down which brings a greater potential for the end of any rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, signaling a soft-landing for the economy which has been touted by Jerome Powell. With a soft landing, it does also signal a strong potential for the Federal Reserve to begin lowering rates in the coming future. 

Consumer Price Index

Despite the report beating inflation expectations and leading to optimistic outcomes for a future soft-landing for the economy, there is still plenty to be cautious about with the reports also signaling the largest reduction was due to the price of gasoline declining significantly from the prior month. The overall cost of living has remained stable and not increased, but there is still plenty to look out for with the coming reports.

?       The consumer price index was flat in October from the previous month but increased 3.2% from a year ago.

?       Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%. The annual rate was the smallest increase since September 2021.

?       The flat reading on the headline CPI came as energy prices declined 2.5% for the month, offsetting a 0.3% increase in the food index.

Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, after advancing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. (See Table A). The October decline is the largest decrease in final demand prices since a 1.2-percent drop in April 2020. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.3 percent for the 12 months ended in October.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
The last 3 weeks have seen a week-to-week decline in rates.

?       15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.05% with the current rate at 6.76%.

?       30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.06% with the current rate at 7.44%

MND Rate Index

?       30-Yr FHA rates increased week to week seeing a -0.21% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.70%

?       30-Yr VA  rates increased week to week seeing a -0.02% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.72%

Jobless Claims
Weekly jobless claims have exceeded expectations this week, with it showing a slight uptrend. Initial Claims have increased to 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week was 218,000. 

What’s Ahead
Thanksgiving week, being next week will see a reduction in the data release schedule. The largest ones will be U.S. leading economic indicator reports, with the usual initial jobless claims, and lastly the final consumer sentiment report for the quarter.

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